Read the piece first, than consider this counter-argument:

I think it largely overlooks the #1 reason WHY State has suffered through extended droughts this year: No Tracy Smith.

There are two HUGE things Tracy brings to the table that helps negate the likelihood of extended droughts: senior leadership and high-percentage scoring.

The leadership component is key for any team, but on a team that relies so heavily on its young core of Brown, Leslie, Harrow, Wood and Painter—none of whom are upperclassmen—having ANY leadership on the floor is even more critical when things go awry.

But perhaps more importantly, Tracy gives State reliable scoring. Droughts are infectious, self-serving poisons that grow the longer they persist. The easiest way to end a drought is simply to put the ball in the basket. Just one easy layup underneath can be enough to loosen up a team who tightens up with each missed jumper. And Tracy Smith, who makes his living hitting high-percentage shots close to the basket, is the most reliable player on the roster to turn to when you need that key basket to end the schneid.

He should be back by the Arizona game, and in the biggest game of the season to this point, I don’t think we’ll see State suffer any droughts as long as he’s in the lineup.

That’s right…R&R’s gone “.com”

It’s an easier site name to remember, will give me more flexibility and the capability for richer content. The look and feel of the site will stay the same; hopefully just more improved.

As always, thanks for reading!

Nate Irving SI.com First-Team All-America

This post concerns a pretty interesting site, www.whatifsports.com, that simulates sporting events using existing metrics on the opposing teams and some super-secret formula, I’m sure.

Every year they do a College Football Bowl simluation spectacular, where they simulate every bowl game 1,001 times and share their results. They boast a 75% prediction success rate straight-up for every game this year (sorry degenerates), which is pretty good.

The bad news for State this year, though, is they are predicting State to lose their matchup against the Mountaineers 30-23. If their 75% win ratio holds true for the bowl season, we better hope State falls into their 25% window of incorrect picks.

For those bummed by that prediction, take heart in this: the site also offers you, the reader, the ability to run your own simulations where you can tweak some of the parameters. And when I set the offensive playbooks of State at “heavy pass” and WVU as “heavy run” (which seems like a much more accurate description of both teams rather than having their playbooks set at “balanced”), and with the game played at a neutral location with clear weather, State won four out of the five games I simulated.

For what that’s worth.

Oh, and in typo news, seems like State’s not the only team that suffers the sting of unfortunate typos:

Where does this team go from here? (Courtesy N&O)

They could go back to the film, see where they went away from the gameplan and reverted to “street ball,” and use that tape to correct some of the selfish tendencies that led them to play as five individuals versus one team.

Believing that scenario would transpire is what led me to think State had a puncher’s chance against Wisconsin.

After watching the game last night—every last, agonizing second of it—it’s clear this team, its players and its coaches didn’t take one damn thing away from the Georgetown game. Not one.

EVERY negative tendency we saw manifest itself in the second half of the Georgetown game—the poor/quick shot selection, the insistence to take folks one-on-one, the incredibly sloppy defense and the overall lack of a sense of urgency—didn’t wait until the second half to appear against the Badgers; they were right there from the opening tip.

I can’t recall the last time a State game made me physically ill, but last night did. My stomach literally twisted watching that garbage, because I knew what it ultimately meant: poor, poor coaching, and the chance that the demons that plagued the 2007 season could be rearing their ugly heads again.

I want Sidney Lowe to succeed very badly. I know what he means to this University and its legacy on the hardwood, and how much State means to him personally. But while he deserves tremendous kudos for his recruiting ability and his knack for targeting talent early, I lost a LOT of confidence in his ability to coach and mold great talent into what he needs to succeed last night.

I truly thought (or drank the Kool Aid that was being passed around) that Sidney’s issues to this point were 1) a lack of talent and 2) chemistry clashes that would be solved once “his guys” were all in place. I understood why the strife between JJ Hickson and Herb’s star players; I couldn’t foresee a team of extremely talented guys whom Sidney had built relationships with since their junior high days not meshing together.

But watching the team last night, it felt like 2007 all over again, and if 2011 plays out like it did four years ago, this will be Sidney’s last year at State. Of that, there now is no doubt in my mind.

The ACC Roundtable (shown actual size)

It’s ACC Roundtable time again! Football season is winding down so this post centers primarily on end-of-season activities–the ACC Title Game and bowl season.

This time, the fellas from BCInterruption are hosting. They’ll have a roundup of everyone’s answers over at their site sometime tomorrow.

On with the questions and my answers:

1. Virginia Tech and Florida State seemed to acquit the ACC Championship Game well this year, turning in an entertaining 44-33 game in front of a crowd of 72,379 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte. Assess the success of the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte in year one. How much of the success can be attributed to the host city, and how much can be attributed to the matchup? A little of A, a little of B?

I think it was a smashing success, and would’ve been even more so had a team from North Carolina (cough cough, NC State) been one of the two representatives. If Greensboro is the heart of the ACC, Charlotte is probably the next best thing, and its central location put it within easy driving distance of both Blacksburg and Tallahassee.

Certainly having two recent football powers with large alumni bases playing the game versus, say, Georgia Tech versus Boston College (no offense, guys) made for a very appealing matchup even if you weren’t a fan of either team.

2. Would you like to see Charlotte become the permanent home of the ACC Football Championship? Or would you be in favor of some alternate Championship Game format? (continuing to rotate the location, move to campus a la the Pac 12, etc.) Explain.

I think Charlotte should definitely be the host city, permanently. It’s nearly equidistant to Boston and Miami and within easy driving distance of nearly every other school, and that’s just too much of a factor to ignore when it comes to putting butts in the seats. Further, since Charlotte doesn’t host a bowl game that would pick from either of the two title game participants, you avoid the prospect of playing the title game and bowl game in the same venue.

Sure, an outdoor venue in late fall may keep some less hardy souls away, but the purist in me feels like the cold weather only enhances the experience. As they say, that’s “football weather.”

I think moving it from place to place only highlights the shakiness of the ACC’s already weak position as a BCS conference. If it’s a traveling roadshow that you just expect people to show up to because it’s “The ACC Championship,” forget it. ACC Football doesn’t have enough cache to draw in spectators from the local populations of Tampa, Jacksonville or Inset-Florida-Location-Here like it might in Charlotte.

And notice I used the word might. I doubt, even in the heart of ACC country, you could bring in thousands of locals with no affiliation to either team. The VAST majority of your spectators will still be fans of either school. Having it in “the middle” makes that easier for everyone (not located in Florida).

The ACC should look to the Gold Standard of conference title games for a guide on how to operate, the SEC Title Game. And how do they do it? It’s hosted by the same venue, in the same, centrally-located city, each and every year. If you put the ACC Title Game in Charlotte each and every year, it will start to build some familiarity with the local population and I think they, like the folks of Atlanta, will embrace hosting it over time.

The only thing I might change about the process is waiting to make tickets available for purchase until both teams are determined. Since the Atlantic participant wasn’t decided until the final week, Virginia Tech fans had a head start on ticket sales and a lot of State fans bought tickets before the Maryland game simply to avoid being shut out had we made the title game. That left a lot of Wolfpack fans scrambling to unload their tickets after the game against the Terps and no doubt a lot of those tickets went to Virginia Tech fans. So my guess is the attendance numbers, by fanbase, were greatly in favor of the Hokies. I think waiting to make tickets available until both teams are locked in would lead to more equitable distribution of each team’s fanbases.

3. On to the ACC’s 2010 slate of bowl games. How happy are you with your program’s bowl placement? Did your team’s bowl destination exceed or fall short of preseason expectations? (No, I didn’t forget about you, Wake and Virginia. You can speak to general season results relative to preseason expectations here).

State might be the only fanbase among the BCS conference somewhat disappointed with finding itself in the #3 bowl tie-in after preseason predictions largely had us missing a bowl game altogether. Why? When you look at what might’ve been, you ache at knowing how close State was to playing in a much more significant bowl with higher stakes.

Logically, yes, the Champs Bowl is a great bowl. It’s in the top tier of the ACC’s bowl tie-ins. And yes, given State was predicted to fall flat on its face in 2010 and get Tom O’Brien fired makes finishing the year 8-4 somewhat satisfying.

But look back at what got away from us, in reverse order:

• State knew they had to beat Maryland to go to the title game, yet blew it.
• They had every opportunity to beat a down Clemson team and blew it (win that game and the Maryland game is a non-issue).
• The loss to East Carolina stung, from a rivalry standpoint if not from a conference standpoint, and–again–we played poorly and blew it.
• And in the Virginia Tech game, we let a 17-0 first half lead slowly evaporate over the next three quarters.

So all four losses were not only winable games, but you could argue three of the four (VT was just better than us that day) SHOULD have been won. And thinking about an 11-1 NC State team (likely ranked in or just outside the Top 10) playing for a chance to go to the Orange Bowl makes your heart sink at would could have been.

But, you know…if, buts, candy, nuts, etc. etc. etc. yada yada yada, we’re still excited about the Champs Bowl.

4. Looking at the conference’s bowl schedule as a whole, how many games do you have the conference winning? Is this the year the conference has a breakout year come bowl season?

In chronological order, and with nary an ounce of research into the matchups:

1. Independence Bowl, GT v Air Force. — The “Whoa, That Was Fast; It’s Already Over?” Bowl. Hope you like the option, and lots of it. This could be possibly the shortest bowl game in history. I set the over/under at 2 hours, 15 mins. I think Paul Johnson’s still a hell of a coach, and since Tech’s defense sees the option so often at practice, I think they’ll perform better than they have on the whole this year. I’ll say Tech over Air Force, 28-24.
2. Champs Sports Bowl, State v West Virginia — The “Dammit We’re Better Than This” Bowl. This has the chance to be a very good game, actually. West Virginia is ranked #22 heading into the matchup, stinging at not winning the Big East. State is better than its (non) ranking suggests and let a great season get away (see: above). If Russell Wilson performs well, I think State wins this game in a close one. I’ll say 24-21.
3. Military Bowl, Maryland v ECU — The “Oh My God I Can’t Believe We Fell This Far” Bowl. The Terps finished with an 8-4 record and have a great young quarterback in Danny O’Brien and a tremendous receiver in Torrey Smith. But something tells me ECU will find a way because they want to be there more than Maryland. If the Pirates don’t go braindead like State’s coaches did and leave Smith open in single-coverage, I think they win this one to put the ACC at 2-1 through the first three games. Pirates 38, Terps 21.
4. Music City Bowl, Tennessee v UNC — The “Oh Hell No You Didn’t Try To Duck Us” Bowl. The Tar Heels have fought through (self-inflicted) adversity to a 7-5 record and now get to face a Tennessee team that dropped the Tar Heels from their schedule because they felt it made for too difficult a non-conference slate for new coach Derek Dooley (we ARE talking about the Tar Heels, right?). The Heels will be out to make a statement, but the Vols will have a partisan crowd on hand and will make this one interesting. I think the Heels pull it out on the final drive, 21-17.
5. Meineke Car Care Bowl, Clemson v South Florida — The “Hey, Are These Brake Pads In My Free Gifts Bag?” Bowl. Clemson will be looking to put a nice spin on a disappointing season and rekindle a little love for Ol’ Dabo, but Skip Holtz will do what Skip Holtz does: win at the end of the year. He won back-to-back conference titles at ECU and I think he’ll win his first bowl game as coach of The Bulls. I see South Florida winning an ugly one, 14-10.
6. Hyundai Sun Bowl, Miami v Notre Dame — The “Oh Crap I Forgot To Include This In My Original Post” Bowl. So yeah, I missed this bowl prediction the first go-round…that’s why I have such astute readers to keep me on my toes. Ok, so, we have Miami–minus their head coach–facing Notre Dame in another battle of two disappointed teams (you may be noticing a theme here of disappointed teams in bowls. Such is the way of life when you have to find 70 teams to fill these things.). Since I imagine the players at Miami probably feel like Shannon got a raw deal (versus players who can see the writing on the wall when a coach goes 0-12) and the Irish have a better and more stable coaching situation, I’m going with Notre Dame in this one. How about 24-13? Sound good?
7. Chic Fil A Bowl, South Carolina v Florida State — The “I Said ‘Cocks’ And That’s A Naughty Word!” Bowl. The Cocks (tee hee) are having their best year ever under Steve Spurrier and Florida State is looking like the ‘Noles of old under Jimbo Fisher. The Cocks (tee hee) are probably still stinging from the butt-whoopin’ Auburn put on them in the SEC Title Game, but I don’t think it was enough to shame the Cocks (tee hee) into giving up on winning this game. In a year or two I think Jimbo wins this game, but I think the Cocks (tee hee) pull out (tee hee) a victory and receive the golden shower of confetti (ok, I’ll stop now) celebrating on the victory podium, 27-24. The ACC concludes the December slate of bowl games 3-3.
8. Orange Bowl, Virginia Tech v Stanford — The “Damn I Hope The ACC Wins This One” Bowl. The ACC could sure use the salve of beating one of the hottest teams in the country in Stanford, certainly after the way the season–and VT’s season in particular–started. They would be beating Heisman hopeful Andrew Luck and a team whose only loss came at the hands of Oregon. I know everyone thinks Stanford’s a lock…which is why I’m going Hokies in the shocker in a low-scoring affair, 14-10. Tyrod Taylor caps off his great career with a signature win.
9. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, BC v Nevada — The “BC Faces Off Against The Wolf SPACE Pack” Bowl. The Wolf…..Pack are 12-1 this season and bested Boise St. in overtime for their signature win. Though I’m rooting for BC and the Spaz Stache to get the job done (especially after college football lost a great ‘stache with the “resigning” of the Wannstache this week), I think the Pack (no apostrophe, see because Wolf and Pack are two words and Pack stands alone, and… alright I’ll let it go) will take care of The Eagles easily, I’m afraid. Pack in a rout, 31-10. The ACC finishes the bowl season with an appropriate middle-of-the-road, average 4-5 record.

5. Clearly, there are many factors other than on-field performance that go into bowl selections (travel rep, ticket sales, travel distances). Pretend for a moment that the ACC placed teams in our conference’s bowl games 1-9 based solely on their on-field performance this season (you can rank 1-9 anyway you see fit). Holding our bowl opponents fixed, how does your answer to question 4 change? Does the ACC then win more or less bowl games this year?

Dammit, this is hard. Where are all the softball questions I signed up for, Brian?

Well, obviously the big mover up the ladder would be Maryland. It’s debatable whether Maryland would deserve to be in the #3 slot (they beat State head-to-head but finished with an identical conference record against weaker conference opponents and trail State in nearly every ranking system), but let’s assume the Terps face WVU and State slides to #4 and faces Tennessee in the Music City. I think Maryland loses to West Virginia and State probably beats Tennessee.

That would drop the ACC’s record overall to 3-5 if I assume all other schools win or lose like I predicted earlier.  If the Tar Heels wound up in the Meineke Car Care Bowl AGAIN, they would lose it AGAIN (that’s just what Butch does) to drop the league to 2-6.

6. Last one. The home of the ACC Champion has been the redheaded step child of BCS bowls the past few seasons. The Orange Bowl has been awarded either the Big East champ or a BCS at-large leftover the past few seasons and the casual fan has responded with some of the lowest TV ratings in BCS bowl history. Did the Hokies/ACC dodge a bullet not drawing an 8-4 Big East champ UConn in the Orange Bowl? Or would you have rather have had the Hokies face an easier opponent to improve on the ACC’s 2-10 record in BCS bowls?

Well, since I have the Hokies shocking the college football world with an upset win over Stanford, it’s the best possible scenario for the ACC. But let’s say the Hokies lose. I think it’s a good thing they played a real top-tier opponent in Standford versus getting a patsy from the Big East. We definitely need to improve that woeful record in BCS bowls, but I’d hate to do it at the expense of less-than-quality wins and subpar ratings. The league needs a champion worthy of being called a BCS Bowl champion…beating up on the Big East’s participant or a random AQ school doesn’t accomplish that.

Just some quick thoughts from me. Be sure to visit Steven’s site for a thorough breakdown on Wisconsin’s roster and what to expect from their starting lineup and to LiveBlog during the game.

• During the entire Bo Ryan era at Wisconsin, the Badgers have only lost 11 games at home. That’s just stupid wicked sick. It’s also good for a greater-than-.900 winning percentage. Basically, the Badgers don’t lose at home.
• If you thought Herb Sendek’s offense was slow, get ready for the ultimate slowdown offense. Out of 345 Division I teams, Wisconsin is 342nd in pace, averaging just under 62 possessions a game. State, by contrast, is closer to the middle of the pack at 174th and exactly 68 possessions per game. One of the keys tonight will be imposing a faster tempo on Wisconsin through tough defense, steals, and defensive rebounds. Which brings us to our next point…
• They are really, really good on the boards. Coincidentally, State is really, really bad on the boards. I’m hoping rebounding was a point of emphasis heading into this game, but something tells me it will be the same ol’ story it’s been. State will likely get killed on the glass tonight, meaning it will need to cash in the points they can and hit shots to limit the disparity in possessions between the Pack and the Badgers.
• If there’s an exploitable weakness, it’s probably beyond the arc. They’re below average from three and conversely don’t defend it well, so if the Pack can get Wisconsin into a three-point-shooting competition, it stands a chance.
• Of course our freshmen trio will need to play lights out, but more importantly, play smart. They can’t let a run by the Badgers result in an extended drought like the one that occurred against Georgetown. Javier Gonzalez’s senior leadership will need to manifest itself.
• KenPom gives us a 20% chance. I’ll take those odds, given fewer than 10% of teams win at the Kohl’s Center.

Here’s the partial Wisconsin scouting report from KenPom.com

Scouting Report (?)

Stats include games through Tuesday, November 30
against D-I teams only

I, too, was puzzled as to why Irving was left off the list over Carter, who had a markedly more average season than Irving. So I decided to drop a line to Ron Arp of the Butkus Foundation to see if I could get some clarification on the committee’s thinking. His response (which is nearly verbatim to the one Johnson received) is murky in its logic but does offer a sliver of hope that Irving might receive at least some recognition:

Ron, I wish it helped more than it does. But explaining to me (and to all of us) that Carter’s “less-traditional finesse-oriented style” warranted recognition over Irving’s traditional blow-you-the-eff-up style that has worked so much more effectively this season than Carter’s doesn’t cut it.

The proof is in the pudding, Ron. Irving is the better linebacker by any measure, and by snubbing Irving over Carter, you and your compatriots discredit yourselves and the award you represent.

The 6-3, 309-pound product of Carver High in Columbus, GA, was a three-star recruit out of high school and a top 50 tackle prospect nationally according to Scout. Unlike the recent departure of graduate transfer Anthony Talbert, who wanted more playing time for his senior season, McKinney's leaving does not appear to be motivated by playing time. Moving on for more playing time does not make sense because he likely would have been a starter just as soon with the Pack as any other FBS squad since he would have to sit out a year as a transfer.

He disappeared from the roster shortly after spring grades would have become known to the coaching staff; unfortunately, grades are likely the culprit for his disappearance from the team.

McKinney's loss is a big one from a depth standpoint, as the Pack lost four seniors that had starting experience from last year's offensive line and now have one less option that they were counting on going forward.

N.C. State fans would love nothing more than to see their beloved nine face North Carolina Saturday in primetime with a well-rested Carlos Rodon ready to shut down the lefty-laden Heels lineup and lead the Pack to the conference championship game. Though it is possible to make it to the championship game with a 2-1 record in pool play, the Pack's best chance for a meaningful game against the Heels is to take care of their other pool opponents first. Go 1-1 or 0-2 against Clemson and Miami while holding Rodon back and Saturday's game is likely rendered meaningless.

The reality is that there are no easy outs in the ACC tournament. North Carolina is ranked #2 in the NCAA's official RPI rankings; Clemson is 12^th and Miami is 20^th. Given the difficulty of the pool, Elliot Avent should treat the tournament as if it were single elimination. Win today and worry about tomorrow tomorrow, and that means Rodon should toe the rubber against Clemson in Wednesday's opener at 7 p.m.

Rodon went 6-1 against league foes, suffering his only setback at the hands (claws?) of the Tigers back on March 8^th in what was a particularly painful day at the park for the Pack. That's also the game where Trea Turner went down with an ankle injury. Rodon getting redemption would be a nice storyline, but the main reason he should go in this game is because runs will be incredibly difficult to come by against a Tiger team with a 2.97 ERA. If Daniel Gossett (9-3, 2.20 ERA) or Matthew Crownover (7-2, 2.05) toes the rubber, Rodon is really the Pack's only hope of matching up.

Miami also has a stout staff (3.27 team ERA) led by first team all-ACC selection Bryan Radziewski (8-2, 1.64), a junior lefty who almost certainly will face the Heels Thursday when the Pack's other pool mates open the series. Since the Canes are likely to spend their ace in the opener, and because Miami struggles to score runs--the U finished second to last in the league in runs and tied for last in home runs--Friday's game two would appear to be the perfect opportunity for senior Ethan Ogburn to pick up a big win for the Pack. Ogburn has been up and down all season but mostly down in conference play, where he has a 6.00 ERA, but he opened the 2012 ACC tournament with six and 2/3 innings of solid work for the Pack...against Miami. He scattered five hits, walked a batter, struck out five, and yielded just a pair of runs in that Pack win. He can do it again.

So, Rodon earns redemption against the Tigers, Ogburn pitches like the guy he was last year against the Canes, and the Pack suddenly has a championship on the line against the Tarheels. Who's going to start next? That's when the deep Pack pen comes into play. Logan Jernigan has been getting the ball over the plate of late and has the stuff to get through the Heels order once, and then it is attack of the lefties. Avent will have Grant Sasser (3-0, 1.27, 7 saves), Travis Orwig (3-0, 1.50, 1), D.J. Thomas (2-0, 2.70), Will Gilbert (0-0, 3.18), and talented but erratic freshman Brad Stone (2-2, 6.23, 10 K/9) to hopefully pick apart a lineup that will start at least six lefties, including the Heels' two best hitters in Colin Moran (1.108 OPS!) and Cody Stubbs (1.026).

It's not like an offense as strong as UNC's can't hit lefties at all, but those lefty-lefty matchups are the Pack's best bet of springing the upset. What do Chris Diaz, Daniel Polka, Rodon, David Rosenberger, Kelly Secrest, and Brandon Waddelll have in common? They are all left handed, and those six southpaws handed the Heels six of their eight losses on the season. Of course Rodon is the Pack's best lefty, but the Heels saw him less than a month ago, so throwing the entire arsenal of lefty bullpen arms at Carolina seems like the best course of action now, especially since I don't think the Pack get by red-hot Clemson without their ace. You could even make the argument that the Tigers are a better team than the Heels right now. Carolina is not the same club without Skye Bolt and enters the postseason having won just four of their last eight games.

Earlier in the season I offered Avent a little unsolicited lineup advice; he followed it (which I'm sure was purely coincidental, but still) and the Pack swept Georgia Tech in Atlanta for the first time since dirt was invented. Avent didn't quite get the order right, but he got all of the right names in there. Now follow this handy layout for the tournament and the Pack will be playing on Sunday. And guess what: Rodon might just be able to give the Pack a little something on Sunday after three days' rest.

***UPDATED***

And seconds after I hit post: this:

Welp.

NC State added Brandon Mitchell to the quarterback mix on Monday, giving the Pack a much-needed option beyond Pete Thomas and Manny Stocker, who apparently have done everything to not convince the coaching staff that they are capable of running the new offense.

It seems a fair bet that Mitchell will end up winning the job because he will no doubt unlock his inner Heisman Trophy talents now that he has made the move to Raleigh. Yeah let's go with that. But given that we know he caught 17 passes last year, he provides some extra depth in that area as well--if nobody is open, he can just throw the ball to himself for a first down. There's no stopping that.

He also played basketball at Arkansas. Maybe he can help out Mark Gottfried next spring. Basically there's no limit to what and where Brandon Mitchell can help NC State. I bet he's a good pitcher too. He will end up playing 13 varsity sports before leaving.